Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Spoiler Alert

Spoiler Alert:  The Cleveland Cavaliers will not win the championship this year.  I repeat, The Cleveland Cavaliers will not win the NBA Title in 2011.
Now, a week removed from the All-Star Break is as good a time as any to make some predictions.  I've been reading different versions of power rankings over the weeks.  This little tid bit of genius is meant to gauge the week by week performance of all the teams and make a comprehensive list of the best teams all the way down to the worst.  It fluctuates incessantly with little rhyme or reason as if the author is trying to copy whoever the people are that come up with the standards for winning an Oscar.  At least in the NBA you have to win the Championship to be called the best.  Put out a movie that makes no sense, make sure nobody goes to watch it, and it'll get best picture.
My problem with the power rankings is that a week by week look is almost worthless.  It's an 82 game season.  One week will never serve as an effective microcosm of the season as a whole.  That's why I've waited five months for my rankings.  Also Power Rankings is a weak title.  That's why I've created the Post All-Star Post Trade Deadline Unequivocal Undisputed Heavyweight Champion of Mid Season Infinite Cosmic Power Rankings.  PAPTDUUHCMSICPR for short.  Take that Marc Stein
Teams Who Are and Will Remain Championship Contenders
1. Boston Celtics -  They are in first place in the East.  They win on the road and at home.  They've got other teams making trades in hopes of finding a way to beat them while they make trades that don't make any sense because they're not afraid of anyone.  They act like they won it last year even though they didn't.  Problems:  The player who's injury kept them from winning last year just got traded.  Summing up Shaq's various ailments this season is like talking to Betty White after a pick up game. The late-season pick-up of Troy Murphy should help with their front-court.however. Oh, and one more thing, they didn't win last year. 
2.  Los Angeles Lakers - These guys did.  Sure they haven't won as many regular season games so far as people thought they would.  You know why?  Because they don't care.  At all.  Every time someone asks Kobe about the latest Laker loss he just mumbles and gives a look to the reporter that would rival Charlie Sheen's when appearing in court.  He's bored and doesn't care.  That said they're just biding their time.  They will care in June.  I bet even Ron Artest will care.  Well...that's a little drastic.
3.  Chicago Bulls -  Derrick Rose is MVP.  He's not the best player in the league.  But he's playing like he is.  Yes, there is a difference.  As of right now they're third in the East and can smell blood as the Heat falter.  Noah is back, Boozer has gone more than one week without a random injury for the first time all season, and Luol Deng is playing solid basketball for the first time in his career.  It's all systems go heading into the home stretch.
4.  Dallas Mavericks - Last year the Mavs ended up with the 2 seed in the West and disappointed in the playoffs with a quick exit at the hands of the Spurs.  Right now the Spurs are looking like the 1 seed, so the Mavs wouldn't see them in the first round.  Dirk is playing great, and everyone else is solid.  The reason that this might be the year is because everyone on the roster knows that this is the year.  The old guys remember 2006 and remember how long its taken to get it all back.  The young guys know that sooner or later the Mavs will be plunged into rebuilding mode and their futures will be uncertain.  The time is now and they know it.  That makes for a dangerous team.
5.  Miami Heat - Some may be surprised that I've got the Mavs over the Heat.  I'd like to remind you that the Heat have played Dallas the two games they're allotted already...and they lost both.  The Miami Heat are a championship contender.  I've no doubt that these guys can get it done in crunch time in the playoffs.  But as good as Lebron and Wade are, Bosh is frankly overrated.  Talk about overpaid.  He makes more money that Dwyane Wade.  Are you kidding me?  Failing to get Murphy is a disappointment, although they still have hope of acquiring Mike Bibby in time for the playoffs.  This year is translatable to 2006.  They Heat were underwhelming in the regular season against quality opponents then too.  Just pretend that the Celtics are the 2006 Pistons.  And make up for that fact that Mavs aren't that good by adding in the threat of both the Spurs and the Lakers.  My point is, they can get it done.  But they are discovering a simple truth that many people looked past.  A South Beach hook-up doesn't equate to rings.  They have to earn them.  The other teams are ensuring that.
6.  San Antonio Spurs - They have the best record in the NBA.  Why are they so low.  Easy.  They're like a time bomb.  They are likely to explode at any moment.  Warning signs have appeared this week with Parker going down with an injury for 2-4 weeks.  Parker, Ginobli, Duncan, McDyess, and Jefferson all could go down at any time.  Oh, and Blaire has no knees.  Good luck with that guys.  Having said that, you can't call the team with the best record a non-contender.  So I squeeze them in here.

Teams Who Could Be Contenders If...
7.  Oklahoma City Thunder - This is a good basketball team.  They've got a decent record.  A record which they've earned with a poor front court.  Now with Perkins acquired and signed to an extension, we're talking contender material.  They're just not quite there yet.  They don't even necessarily need anymore major changes to the roster.  They just need some development.  Look at the Bull for example.  They were a 500 team last year and now they're up with the elites.  Carlos Boozer was a major acquirement but its the increased play of Rose, Deng, and Noah (especially Rose) that has really got them going.  If Durant can pick up on defense, and Westbrook can continue to improve at his current rate, and Ibaka and Harden prove to be great players, then along with Perkins they will be worth fearing.  With the Lakers, Mavs, and Spurs all communing with Father Time, the future is bright for this squad.
8.  Orlando Magic - They are competing for a good playoff seed right now, and yet all one can hear about is what Howard will do in 2012.  The Vince Carter experiment failed.  The Gilbert Arenas experiment is failing.  The Magic have proven that they are not afraid to make a trade.  But do they make the right trades?  People commend them for getting Turk back, but why did they let him go in the first place?  Richardson is a good player, but is he the number two guy on a championship team?  I don't see it.  This is a good ball club that has the potential of a deep playoff run.  With question marks at the center position for Boston and Miami, Dwight Howard should be a monster in the playoffs.  But he hasn't won it by himself yet, there is no reason to think he will this year either.
9.  Atlanta Hawks - It may be a stretch to put them up this far.  They made it on potential more than current performance.  They're hoping that Kirk is going to take them places.  He doesn't strike me as a franchise savior, but then again, the past two teams he played for had Rose and Wall, so maybe he just hasn't gotten the chance.  What the Hawks really need is a center.  Imagine if they had gotten Perkins for Marvin Williams ( a fair sub for Jeff Green) and Zaza Pachulia (gotta be better than Nenad, I'd rather start Justin Bieber).  Then they slide Hortford to four where he belongs, Smith to the three where he belongs, let Johnson and Kirk run the show in the back court, and all of sudden the Hawks are going places.  I'm salivating over the potential, so that's why they're up here.
10.  New York Knicks - Yeah so they got Carmelo and Amare.  And if you love devising big threes for every team out there than I guess you can add Chauncey into the mix.  But really, if they had kept Felton, would you be calling it a Felton/Anthony/Stoudemire big three?  No.  But Felton is just as good as Billups.  So there.  The Knicks are an 'almost there' team because they have two of the NBA's best players.  They're not there yet because they only have two great players, one good player, and a guy in Landry Fields who will be good in two years.  They need a point guard for the future and a center now.  If there's anywhere that a free agent might take a look at going, its New York City, so it'll be interesting to see what the Knicks can pull off for the years to come.  But for this year, they're just not there yet.

They'll Make the Playoffs...And Probably Get Swept
11.  New Orleans Hornets - Chris Paul is making sure these guys make the playoffs.  But are they actually good?  No.  Right now they are owned by the 29 other league owners and no one is sure if they'll be in New Orleans much longer.  Few people expect Chris Paul to hang around much longer to find out.  The franchise is in trouble.  Despite the uncertainty, they're over .500 in the Western Conference (which is on its way to becoming the Eastern Conference of two years ago) and are a solid mid-pack team.  The problem is that they're not going to get much better than this any time soon, and that doesn't bode well.
12.  Philadelphia 76ers - I was shocked that I put these guys so high.  They don't seem like they're that good.  Yet they're a solid playoff team.  They are definitely overachieving right now, and have a poor chance of maintaining this level of play in years to come.  Yet they're making it happen this year somehow someway, and you gotta hand it to them for that.
13.  Denver Nuggets - Having to trade away your best player is never a comfortable scenario.  Now the Nuggets have got some young talent and a stockpile of draft picks to work with.  Who knows what the future holds for them?  Since the Melo deal they've played honestly just as well as they played before the deal.  If they keep it up they'll make a brief appearance in the playoffs and call is season before anyone gets hurt.
14.  Portland Trail-Blazers - They just got Gerald Wallace from Charlotte for basically nothing, and Brandon Roy had played well since his return earlier this week.  Has anyone noticed that this team plays way better than they should with the constant injuries on a yearly basis?  This club knows how to persevere and succeed relative to expectations.  Everyone in the organization is still crying in their sleep of Greg Oden and whimpering occasionally over Michael Jordan, but they keep chugging and are looking like they'll sneak into the playoffs.
15.  Indiana Pacers - For a while it looked like Charlotte might catch these guys for the bottom seed in the East, but lately Indiana has begun to pull away.  They're not overly talented.  They're not overly dedicated.  But Granger and company is winning just enough to sniff out the post season.
16.  Memphis Grizzlies - The Western Conference version of the Pacers, they're a just-enough type of ball club right now.  Nabbing Shane Battier is a plus, we'll have to see if he helps them out long-term.  He'll at least help fill the void until Rudy (No he's not really) Gay comes back.

Playing for Pride I Guess?
17.  Phoenix Suns - They're over .500 but aren't looking like a playoff team.  I bet wish they were in the East, where they'd be like a six seed right now.  Steve Nash still plays hard, and newly acquired Aaron Brooks is solid.  But they're probably still slightly dazed over there because they can't figure out how in the world they got stuck with Vince Carter.  So while he slowly sapps their will to live, the head honchos have begun planning for a summer move of Steve Nash.
18.  Utah Jazz - After watching Lebron flick off the Cavs in the summer and Melo torture the Nuggets all year long, the Jazz said "Forget this" and traded Deron Williams before he even thought about complaining.  Now they get to explore rebuilding options while watching Deron flounder in New Jersey.  The Jazz are pretty smart.
19.  Houston Rockets - Why Yao why?  Curse your big feet!  The rockets are mired in mediocrity and have strapped themselves to the sail known as Yao Ming for a few years to long now.  They know that they've got to move on from the messy relationship, find new love.  Except they haven't actually broken up with him yet.  Oops...
20.  Charlotte Bobcats - At least they've got Michael Jordan.
21.  Milwaukee Bucks - Last year the really overachieved and everyone thought they were an up and coming team.  I guess they got bored of all that premature praise.
22.  Golden State Warriors - As bad as they seem, they've actually won 26 games.  For that I had mercy and left them out of this next group.

Somebody Unlock the Basement Door!
23.  Detroit Pistons - All of the players are sitting around saying "We're talking about practice, not a game.  Any time you can compare Allen Iverson's attitude to a team, you can just leave it at that.
24.  Los Angeles Clippers - If it wasn't for Blake Griffin dunking over Kias and Mosgovs then they would be completely hopeless.
25.  New Jersey Nets - Lebron laughed at them.  Carmelo laughed at them.  God laughed at them.  So they finally scrapped free agency and acquired Deron Williams against his will.  Good luck with that.
26.  Toronto Raptors - They hovered around .500 last year with Bosh.  Now they are much much worse, but people don't really notice the change.  I guess they never really had a chance did they?

R.I.P  NBA Graveyard
27.  Washington Wizards - John Wall would be alright, if he could shoot the ball at all and Blake Griffin didn't exist.
28.  Minnesota Timberwolves - Fans had a successful campaign to make Kevin Love an All-Star.  If they really love him, they should campaign to set him free.
29.  Sacramento Kings - Fans are worried that the team will flee for Southern California.  They probably should just try and get Chris Webber to come back.
30.  Cleveland Cavaliers - Did anyone really expect them to be good for very much longer?  I mean, laws of nature can't be broken forever...

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